← Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
Wind Crux LorraineTier 1
at Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.7% | +20.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Recursive Confidant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempestuous Seraphim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Cutter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reaping Legacy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ghost Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aella, Zephyr's Hand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Gyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperious Galebind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardus, Floodborne Deacon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sabela, Gossamer Penance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dummy Trainer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |