← Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
Water FractalTier 2
at Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scepter of Fascination | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diamond Ribbon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pride's Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Essence Crucible | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devoted Martyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |