EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regional 0425.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 75.0% | 56.0% | 55.4% | 52.6% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 4.9% | 11 | 63.6% | 58.3% | 54.4% | 53.5% | 1330 | — |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 7.3% | 17 | 70.6% | 55.4% | 53.3% | 49.7% | 1473 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 53.9% | 52.9% | 53.3% | 1292 | — |
| 5 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 58.3% | 45.3% | 52.5% | 48.4% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 58.3% | 64.1% | 52.1% | 55.2% | 1303 | — |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Alice | 3 | 7.3% | 18 | 47.2% | 46.3% | 52.0% | 51.4% | 1285 | — |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 7.3% | 16 | 68.8% | 53.1% | 51.9% | 48.6% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 4.9% | 12 | 54.2% | 54.6% | 51.1% | 51.6% | 1310 | — |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 58.3% | 68.9% | 50.8% | 55.2% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Umbra Ciel | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 41.7% | 46.7% | 50.8% | 51.0% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 4 | 9.8% | 23 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 50.5% | 51.6% | 1266 | — |
| 13 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 4.9% | 12 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 50.3% | 51.3% | 1261 | — |
| 14 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 4.9% | 12 | 62.5% | 54.2% | 50.1% | 49.6% | 1422 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.4% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | 1104 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Genbu | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 48.3% | 48.8% | 1292 | — |
| 17 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 4.9% | 12 | 45.8% | 45.7% | 48.0% | 48.3% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.4% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.4% | 47.3% | 48.5% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Exia | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 41.7% | 43.1% | 46.7% | 47.3% | 1303 | — |
| 20 | Chess | 1 | 2.4% | 7 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 46.5% | 45.6% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Fractal | 4 | 9.8% | 24 | 39.6% | 47.0% | 45.6% | 48.2% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 2.4% | 5 | 10.0% | 33.4% | 44.0% | 46.1% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 2.4% | 5 | 10.0% | 33.4% | 44.0% | 46.1% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 25.0% | 41.3% | 43.8% | 46.2% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.4% | 5 | 0.0% | 27.1% | 37.3% | 39.9% | 1127 | ↓ low |