← Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 12 | 6.0% | 70 | 63.6% | 57.1% | 56.8% | 53.7% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 11 | 5.5% | 69 | 63.8% | 54.9% | 56.0% | 51.5% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 3 | 1.5% | 24 | 77.1% | 72.9% | 56.0% | 57.2% | 1334 | — |
| 4 | Wind Beast | 1 | 0.5% | 9 | 55.6% | 58.4% | 54.6% | 56.0% | 1284 | — |
| 5 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 0.5% | 9 | 55.6% | 58.4% | 54.6% | 56.0% | 1284 | — |
| 6 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 0.5% | 10 | 65.0% | 59.3% | 53.7% | 53.4% | 1267 | — |
| 7 | Water Luxem Assassin | 5 | 2.5% | 36 | 55.6% | 53.9% | 53.2% | 52.6% | 1273 | — |
| 8 | Water Exia | 5 | 2.5% | 39 | 62.8% | 64.0% | 52.3% | 54.4% | 1270 | — |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 6 | 3.0% | 49 | 57.1% | 53.2% | 52.3% | 51.6% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Oblation | 21 | 10.6% | 158 | 53.5% | 51.5% | 52.3% | 51.9% | 1327 | — |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 1.0% | 16 | 59.4% | 63.1% | 52.2% | 54.7% | 1284 | — |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 4 | 2.0% | 34 | 52.9% | 45.3% | 51.9% | 49.5% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 16 | 8.0% | 113 | 53.1% | 50.0% | 51.4% | 49.8% | 1302 | — |
| 14 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 3 | 1.5% | 24 | 43.8% | 41.0% | 50.3% | 49.5% | 1277 | — |
| 15 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 3 | 1.5% | 25 | 64.0% | 60.5% | 50.2% | 50.5% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Suzaku | 5 | 2.5% | 33 | 53.0% | 49.5% | 49.5% | 48.8% | 1304 | — |
| 17 | Wind Allies | 5 | 2.5% | 41 | 41.5% | 40.4% | 49.5% | 48.9% | 1270 | — |
| 18 | Fire Aetherwing | 7 | 3.5% | 50 | 49.0% | 51.2% | 49.2% | 50.5% | 1236 | — |
| 19 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 4 | 2.0% | 28 | 55.4% | 58.0% | 49.1% | 50.6% | 1309 | — |
| 20 | Water Genbu | 11 | 5.5% | 84 | 47.6% | 48.8% | 48.7% | 49.6% | 1291 | — |
| 21 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 43.8% | 50.7% | 48.6% | 50.7% | 1227 | — |
| 22 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.5% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Water Fractal | 9 | 4.5% | 67 | 45.5% | 47.3% | 48.4% | 48.8% | 1243 | — |
| 24 | Fire Suited | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 36.2% | 48.3% | 44.6% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 25 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 1.0% | 17 | 38.2% | 48.6% | 48.0% | 51.2% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Arcane | 3 | 1.5% | 19 | 52.6% | 55.5% | 48.0% | 50.2% | 1288 | — |
| 27 | Water Allies | 2 | 1.0% | 11 | 59.1% | 52.1% | 47.7% | 48.0% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 28 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 8 | 4.0% | 66 | 47.0% | 46.1% | 47.5% | 48.1% | 1307 | — |
| 29 | Slimes | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 43.8% | 41.1% | 46.9% | 46.5% | 1296 | — |
| 30 | Water Suited | 1 | 0.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 48.0% | 46.9% | 49.6% | 1112 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Fire Exia | 5 | 2.5% | 33 | 43.9% | 45.6% | 46.6% | 47.9% | 1296 | — |
| 32 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 48.7% | 46.3% | 47.9% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Fire Slimes | 8 | 4.0% | 49 | 45.9% | 48.2% | 46.1% | 47.4% | 1259 | — |
| 34 | Water Neos | 2 | 1.0% | 16 | 46.9% | 51.1% | 46.1% | 48.5% | 1236 | — |
| 35 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 4.0% | 56 | 41.1% | 48.8% | 45.4% | 49.2% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 4 | 2.0% | 29 | 31.0% | 42.0% | 45.4% | 48.7% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 1.0% | 16 | 40.6% | 43.8% | 44.8% | 44.6% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Fire Crux Mage | 11 | 5.5% | 72 | 39.6% | 36.9% | 43.5% | 43.4% | 1254 | — |
| 39 | Fire Neos | 1 | 0.5% | 7 | 14.3% | 37.0% | 43.2% | 47.1% | 1027 | ↓ low |
| 40 | Water Astra Ranger | 3 | 1.5% | 11 | 18.2% | 38.5% | 41.8% | 45.4% | 1106 | ↓ low |
| 41 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 0.5% | 10 | 20.0% | 46.0% | 40.8% | 47.6% | 1022 | ↓ low |
| 42 | Wind Neos | 1 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 26.4% | 40.0% | 39.3% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 43 | Luxem Mordred | 4 | 2.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 44 | Wind Crux Assassin | 1 | 0.5% | 7 | 14.3% | 39.4% | 39.0% | 43.7% | 999 | ↓ low |