Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Michigan MRC Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.4% | +19.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Retold Fortune | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hide in Bush | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |