Michigan MRC Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Slimes	Tier 2	12	25.0%	23-26-7	47.3%	47.9%	48.3%	48.7%	1271	—
2		Wind Allies	Tier 1	7	14.6%	20-14-2	58.3%	54.9%	55.7%	54.3%	1345	↑ top
3		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	4	8.3%	10-6-5	59.5%	57.9%	56.9%	55.5%	1315	—
4		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	4	8.3%	8-9-3	47.5%	49.9%	43.6%	45.1%	1330	—
5		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	2	4.2%	5-6-1	45.8%	48.0%	40.0%	41.4%	1331	—
6		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	2	4.2%	3-8-0	27.3%	37.0%	39.8%	41.1%	1203	↓ low
7		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 1	2	4.2%	7-4-2	61.5%	54.7%	54.8%	52.8%	1277	—
8		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	2	4.2%	5-7-0	41.7%	43.0%	46.7%	46.2%	1201	↓ low
9		Water Allies	Tier 2	2	4.2%	6-4-2	58.3%	56.3%	49.6%	49.9%	1267	—
10		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 1	2	4.2%	7-0-3	85.0%	70.6%	61.8%	61.4%	1386	↑ top
11		Fire Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.1%	0-5-0	0.0%	25.9%	38.9%	40.3%	1130	↓ low
12		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	2.1%	3-3-0	50.0%	53.9%	53.0%	53.3%	1390	↑ top
13		Fire Erupting	Tier 2	1	2.1%	4-3-0	57.1%	50.7%	47.8%	48.7%	1540	↑ top
14		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.1%	0-5-0	0.0%	26.3%	40.0%	41.6%	1098	↓ low
15		Water Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.1%	1-3-0	25.0%	38.9%	51.4%	51.2%	1186	↓ low
16		Wind Arcane	Tier 2	1	2.1%	2-3-1	41.7%	39.7%	43.1%	40.6%	1162	↓ low
17		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	2.1%	4-1-1	75.0%	64.7%	55.9%	56.2%	1214	↓ low
18		Wind Overlord	Tier 2	1	2.1%	3-3-0	50.0%	52.1%	57.0%	57.6%	1348	↑ top
19		Wind Silvie	Tier 2	1	2.1%	1-2-3	41.7%	48.2%	53.6%	54.2%	1138	↓ low
20		Wind Slice & Dice	Tier 2	1	2.1%	3-3-0	50.0%	52.9%	53.1%	54.9%	1208	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Slimes 12 decks · 25.0%
• Wind Allies 7 decks · 14.6%
• Fire Crux Mage 4 decks · 8.3%
• Wind Shadowstrike 4 decks · 8.3%
• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 4.2%
• Fire Arcane 2 decks · 4.2%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 2 decks · 4.2%
• Fire Slimes 2 decks · 4.2%
• Water Allies 2 decks · 4.2%
• Water Ravishing Mill 2 decks · 4.2%
• Fire Astra Cleric 1 deck · 2.1%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 2.1%
• Fire Erupting 1 deck · 2.1%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.1%
• Water Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.1%
• Wind Arcane 1 deck · 2.1%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 2.1%
• Wind Overlord 1 deck · 2.1%
• Wind Silvie 1 deck · 2.1%
• Wind Slice & Dice 1 deck · 2.1%