Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Michigan MRC Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -9.3 |
| Wind Allies | 14.6% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 40.7% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disorienting Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadeblood Coating | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Possessed Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malignant Athame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Synth Disrupter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |