Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at Michigan MRC Regionals
decks
1
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-5-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.3%
avg ELO -13.7 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1098
· median 1098
· range 1098–1098
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1184
Q3 1348
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Allies | 14.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
