Water AlliesTier 2
at Michigan MRC Regionals
decks
2
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-4-2
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.3%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1267
· median 1267
· range 1195–1340
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1184
Q3 1348
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 14.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
