Wind AlliesTier 1
at Michigan MRC Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 12 | 8-3-1 | 70.8% | 65.6% | 64.7% | +6.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 59.3% | +6.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.9% | -17.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.5% | -3.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +15.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |