EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GOAT RDO Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suited | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 77.3% | 73.1% | 58.6% | 59.3% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 9.4% | 15 | 70.0% | 51.0% | 57.2% | 52.4% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 52.2% | 56.4% | 51.0% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 44.5% | 54.5% | 50.5% | 1312 | — |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.9% | 51.7% | 52.9% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 50.0% | 57.0% | 51.1% | 53.4% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 40.0% | 50.8% | 48.1% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 5 | 15.6% | 19 | 52.6% | 60.2% | 50.0% | 52.5% | 1218 | — |
| 9 | Water Allies | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 60.0% | 56.6% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1276 | — |
| 10 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 55.6% | 55.1% | 48.1% | 48.7% | 1240 | — |
| 11 | Water Exia | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.7% | 47.9% | 46.8% | 1320 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 9.4% | 13 | 42.3% | 35.6% | 46.6% | 42.9% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 42.4% | 44.7% | 46.3% | 1227 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 59.9% | 44.4% | 50.7% | 1075 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 6.2% | 8 | 37.5% | 47.3% | 43.8% | 47.0% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.4% | 43.6% | 46.1% | 1112 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 25.0% | 37.9% | 42.5% | 41.8% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.7% | 42.5% | 41.2% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 12.5% | 43.7% | 41.2% | 46.5% | 1113 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 31.4% | 40.0% | 36.6% | 1291 | — |