Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at FTG Grand Archive Regionals
decks
3
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
12-5-1
overall winrate
69.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1415
· median 1422
· range 1329–1494
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1203
Q3 1368
1656
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.8% | -22.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Neos | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
