Wind Umbra RangerTier 1
at FTG Grand Archive Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.8 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleansing Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanishing Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Emerald Pistol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbulent Bullet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rapid Reload | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |