Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at FTG Grand Archive Regionals
decks
3
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-6-2
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1300
· median 1327
· range 1221–1352
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1203
Q3 1368
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.7% | +19.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 32.6% | -13.0 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
