Fire EruptingTier 1
at FTG Grand Archive Regionals
decks
3
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
13-2-1
overall winrate
84.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.7%
avg ELO +6.7 per match
expected value
61.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1478
· median 1474
· range 1305–1656
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1203
Q3 1368
1656
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.8% | 6 | 5-0-1 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 67.0% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
