Water AlliesTier 2
at FTG Grand Archive Regionals
decks
1
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.3%
avg ELO +5.5 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1191
· median 1191
· range 1191–1191
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1203
Q3 1368
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
