← Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Ravishing Mill 4 12.5% 17 85.3% 78.4% 59.2% 58.5% 1246
2 Wind Slice & Dice 1 3.1% 5 60.0% 55.2% 55.8% 54.9% 1223
3 Fire Aggro 1 3.1% 5 70.0% 52.6% 55.1% 50.3% 1348 ↑ top
4 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 3.1% 5 60.0% 54.3% 52.1% 51.6% 1388 ↑ top
5 Water Lorraine 1 3.1% 5 50.0% 52.2% 51.8% 52.4% 1212
6 Water Allies 1 3.1% 5 70.0% 51.0% 51.7% 48.0% 1385 ↑ top
7 Fire Crux Hybrid 2 6.2% 11 68.2% 63.7% 51.3% 51.3% 1240
8 Fire Crux Mage 3 9.4% 13 57.7% 58.0% 51.1% 51.9% 1342 ↑ top
9 Wind Allies 2 6.2% 10 50.0% 47.3% 50.4% 49.4% 1212
10 Wind Lorraine 1 3.1% 5 30.0% 38.5% 48.8% 47.9% 1280
11 Slimes 3 9.4% 13 26.9% 34.6% 46.4% 47.1% 1127 ↓ low
12 Water Neos 2 6.2% 10 40.0% 46.9% 46.3% 48.3% 1275
13 Wind Shadowstrike 6 18.8% 23 45.7% 47.1% 45.7% 46.1% 1243
14 Water Dawn of Ashes 1 3.1% 5 30.0% 44.5% 45.4% 47.9% 1170 ↓ low
15 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 3.1% 5 30.0% 39.3% 43.3% 43.5% 1395 ↑ top
16 Water Luxem Assassin 1 3.1% 5 30.0% 40.4% 41.1% 41.3% 1169 ↓ low
17 Fire Arcane 1 3.1% 6 33.3% 34.2% 40.9% 38.7% 1427 ↑ top
18 Fire Arisanna 1 3.1% 4 0.0% 29.6% 36.0% 38.1% 1072 ↓ low