← Island Radiant Origins Grand Archive Store Championships
Fire OblationTier 1
at Island Radiant Origins Grand Archive Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 46.3% | -1.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +6.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.0% | +4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +4.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Pouvoir Absolu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spring Cleaning | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Golden Checkmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Focusing Gem | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |