← Island Radiant Origins Grand Archive Store Championships
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Island Radiant Origins Grand Archive Store Championships
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
12-5-0
overall winrate
70.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.7%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
54.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1249
· range 1223–1730
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1109
Q1 1181
Q3 1372
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 18.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -6.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
