← Island Radiant Origins Grand Archive Store Championships
Horse and TaxesTier 2
at Island Radiant Origins Grand Archive Store Championships
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1367
· median 1367
· range 1367–1367
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1109
Q1 1181
Q3 1372
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 18.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Horse and Taxes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
