← Island Radiant Origins Grand Archive Store Championships
Water NeosTier 2
at Island Radiant Origins Grand Archive Store Championships
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.6%
avg ELO -10.5 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1156
· median 1156
· range 1156–1156
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1109
Q1 1181
Q3 1372
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
