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Fire ArcaneTier 1
at Aria's Cardshop ALC Regionals
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.4%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1190
· median 1190
· range 1190–1190
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1135
Q1 1210
Q3 1350
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 21.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +15.0 |
| Wind Allies | 21.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
