Aria's Cardshop ALC Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	4	21.1%	4-9-4	35.3%	38.1%	44.8%	44.6%	1277	—
2		Wind Allies	Tier 2	4	21.1%	4-10-2	31.2%	37.9%	43.8%	44.9%	1316	—
3		Fire Erupting	Tier 2	3	15.8%	5-8-2	40.0%	42.6%	47.2%	47.5%	1199	↓ low
4		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	2	10.5%	4-4-2	50.0%	49.4%	50.4%	49.9%	1278	—
5		Water Allies	Tier 1	2	10.5%	11-1-2	85.7%	75.5%	60.9%	60.1%	1462	↑ top
6		Water Umbra Ranger	Tier 1	2	10.5%	8-3-2	69.2%	66.7%	57.9%	58.6%	1402	↑ top
7		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	1	5.3%	2-3-0	40.0%	42.6%	51.7%	50.3%	1214	↓ low
8		Fire Arcane	Tier 1	1	5.3%	3-4-0	42.9%	47.4%	50.3%	50.8%	1190	↓ low
9		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	1	5.3%	3-2-0	60.0%	49.2%	54.1%	51.0%	1464	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Luxem Assassin 4 decks · 21.1%
• Wind Allies 4 decks · 21.1%
• Fire Erupting 3 decks · 15.8%
• Fire Crux Mage 2 decks · 10.5%
• Water Allies 2 decks · 10.5%
• Water Umbra Ranger 2 decks · 10.5%
• Fire Aggro 1 deck · 5.3%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 5.3%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 5.3%