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Water Umbra RangerTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 21.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Allies | 21.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 15.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.0% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.2% | -9.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demon's Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |