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Water AlliesTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 21.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Allies | 21.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 15.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 66.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 10.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.8% | +9.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |