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Fire EruptingTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop ALC Regionals
decks
3
(15.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
5-8-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.6%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1199
· median 1188
· range 1172–1236
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1135
Q1 1210
Q3 1350
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 21.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.8% | +3.4 |
| Wind Allies | 21.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 33.4% | -10.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 10.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.0% | -5.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
