EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Brood en Spelen Regionals .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 4 | 14.3% | 19 | 84.2% | 74.6% | 64.3% | 62.4% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Erupting | 5 | 17.9% | 23 | 56.5% | 53.5% | 53.2% | 52.2% | 1277 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 10.7% | 15 | 56.7% | 55.3% | 50.5% | 51.0% | 1403 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Arcane | 3 | 10.7% | 16 | 46.9% | 51.2% | 49.1% | 51.0% | 1258 | — |
| 5 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.0% | 47.7% | 46.8% | 1366 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 3 | 10.7% | 15 | 46.7% | 49.5% | 47.2% | 48.7% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.2% | 45.7% | 47.3% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.6% | 44.4% | 44.6% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Beast | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 38.2% | 43.9% | 43.8% | 1018 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 5 | 17.9% | 26 | 40.4% | 41.5% | 42.9% | 43.0% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 22.7% | 31.8% | 41.6% | 42.2% | 1273 | — |