← CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Umbra Ranger 5 7.8% 28 51.8% 54.3% 54.7% 56.0% 1235
2 Fire Crux Mage 10 15.6% 55 63.6% 58.6% 53.6% 51.1% 1330 ↑ top
3 Water Crux Lorraine 1 1.6% 6 66.7% 55.9% 53.0% 51.4% 1638 ↑ top
4 Water Crux Mage 1 1.6% 6 66.7% 55.2% 52.7% 50.6% 1561 ↑ top
5 Wind Allies 5 7.8% 31 62.9% 57.2% 52.0% 50.6% 1301
6 Water Umbra Ranger 1 1.6% 6 50.0% 49.6% 52.0% 51.3% 1250
7 Water Luxem Assassin 2 3.1% 12 66.7% 58.6% 52.0% 50.4% 1364 ↑ top
8 Fire Arcane 4 6.2% 25 48.0% 45.3% 51.7% 50.5% 1357 ↑ top
9 Water Allies 9 14.1% 50 52.0% 53.6% 50.9% 52.2% 1263
10 Fire Neos Tonoris 1 1.6% 6 50.0% 50.5% 49.5% 49.9% 1310
11 Fire Luxem Zander 1 1.6% 6 33.3% 41.1% 49.0% 48.6% 1089 ↓ low
12 Fire Erupting 4 6.2% 24 50.0% 49.0% 48.9% 48.2% 1191 ↓ low
13 Fire Luxem Assassin 4 6.2% 21 50.0% 51.9% 47.3% 48.7% 1191 ↓ low
14 Fire Umbra Diana 1 1.6% 6 33.3% 47.8% 46.7% 49.2% 1055 ↓ low
15 Fire Crux Hybrid 1 1.6% 6 25.0% 35.8% 46.6% 47.1% 1325 ↑ top
16 Wind Crux Mage 2 3.1% 13 46.2% 41.9% 46.0% 44.6% 1273
17 Water Astra Cleric 1 1.6% 6 33.3% 47.3% 45.9% 49.3% 1130 ↓ low
18 Water Vanitas 1 1.6% 6 33.3% 47.4% 45.8% 48.7% 1090 ↓ low
19 Fire Aggro 7 10.9% 38 38.2% 42.4% 44.4% 46.4% 1183 ↓ low
20 Fire Tera Silvie 1 1.6% 7 42.9% 49.1% 44.0% 45.9% 1199
21 Wind Lorraine 1 1.6% 6 41.7% 44.8% 42.4% 42.8% 1426 ↑ top
22 Fire Diana 1 1.6% 7 35.7% 45.6% 41.7% 44.3% 1125 ↓ low
23 Wind Arisanna 1 1.6% 7 21.4% 33.0% 41.0% 42.0% 1266
24 Fire Neos 1 1.6% 6 16.7% 33.2% 40.9% 41.9% 1021 ↓ low