← Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 14.8% | 18 | 69.4% | 64.1% | 57.5% | 56.5% | 1276 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 75.0% | 63.9% | 56.9% | 55.5% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.6% | 53.3% | 52.0% | 1307 | — |
| 4 | Rogue | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 70.0% | 63.1% | 52.9% | 53.7% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 60.0% | 56.6% | 51.7% | 51.8% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Erupting | 3 | 11.1% | 13 | 57.7% | 55.2% | 50.7% | 50.7% | 1329 | — |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 47.7% | 48.1% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Allies | 4 | 14.8% | 17 | 44.1% | 46.4% | 47.7% | 48.3% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 4 | 14.8% | 18 | 47.2% | 47.6% | 47.1% | 47.3% | 1285 | — |
| 10 | Wind Astra Arisanna | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.3% | 44.4% | 45.6% | 1266 | — |
| 11 | Fire Neos | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.3% | 44.1% | 44.8% | 1111 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.6% | 40.0% | 42.1% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 7.4% | 8 | 0.0% | 19.2% | 38.5% | 39.4% | 1081 | ↓ low |