Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Brisbane Regionals
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.6%
avg ELO -7.7 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1336
· median 1336
· range 1336–1336
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1187
Q3 1281
1438
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
