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Wind AlliesTier 1

at Brisbane Regionals

decks
4 (22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18 10-6-2
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9% avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
53.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1224 · median 1229 · range 1152–1285 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
989 Q1 1187 Q3 1281 1438
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 11.1% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 53.2% +2.4
Fire Erupting 11.1% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 43.0% -5.2
Fire Luxem Assassin 11.1% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 56.8% +6.5
Wind Crux Lorraine 11.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.3% -0.7
Fire Arcane 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.7% +9.1
Fire Crux Mage 5.6% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 5.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 38.0% -11.5
Fire Umbra Ranger 5.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.6% +12.1
Water Umbra Ranger 5.6% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.6% +0.6
Wind Beast 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.0% +12.9
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Enhance Potency +1.00 1 0 0
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon -1.00 0 1 0
Heavy Swing -1.00 0 1 0
Distilled Atrophy +1.00 1 0 0
Displace -1.00 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -1.00 0 1 0
Draught of Stamina +1.00 1 0 0
Attune with the Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Woodland Squirrels -1.00 0 1 0
Tonoris, Might of Humanity -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 1 0 0
Allied Warpriestess +1.00 1 0 0
Windrider Vanguard -1.00 0 1 0
Deflecting Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary -1.00 0 1 0
Inspiring Call -1.00 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon -1.00 0 1 0
Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy +1.00 1 0 0
Wildgrowth Elixir +1.00 1 0 0
Seeking Shot +1.00 1 0 0
Imperial Recruit -1.00 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword -1.00 0 1 0
Poisoned Coating Oil +1.00 1 0 0
Bulwark Sword -1.00 0 1 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Fairy Whispers +1.00 1 0 0
Swift Recruit +1.00 1 0 0
Ingredient Pouch +1.00 1 0 0
Arisanna, Master Alchemist +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Foraging Servant +1.00 1 0 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Enchaining Gale +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/582/archetypes/Wind Allies