Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Brisbane Regionals
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1184
· median 1184
· range 1184–1184
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1187
Q3 1281
1438
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 22.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Wind Beast | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
