Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Brisbane Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 22.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Beast | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |