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Wind Crux LorraineTier 1

at Brisbane Regionals

decks
2 (11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8 5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.5% avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
53.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1329 · median 1329 · range 1221–1438 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989 Q1 1187 Q3 1281 1438
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 22.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.7
Fire Aggro 11.1% 0
Fire Erupting 11.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.4% +10.2
Fire Luxem Assassin 11.1% 0
Fire Arcane 5.6% 0
Fire Crux Mage 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.7
Fire Crux Merlin 5.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.1% -14.3
Fire Umbra Ranger 5.6% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 5.6% 0
Wind Beast 5.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 60.7% +10.2
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Tithe Proclamation +1.00 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Adversity +1.00 1 0 0
Lurking Assailant -1.00 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -1.00 0 1 0
Woodland Squirrels -1.00 0 1 0
Exorcise Curses +1.00 1 0 0
Windrider Vanguard -1.00 0 1 0
Deflecting Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Hurricane Sweep -1.00 0 1 0
Crux Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Song of Nurturing -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword -1.00 0 1 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Fairy Whispers +1.00 1 0 0
Swift Recruit +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension +1.00 1 0 0
Tactful Sergeant +1.00 1 0 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Rally the Peasants +1.00 1 0 0
Academy Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Prismatic Edge +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/582/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine