Fire EruptingTier 2
at Brisbane Regionals
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.6%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1233
· median 1233
· range 1227–1238
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1187
Q3 1281
1438
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 22.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.7% | -15.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
