Fire AggroTier 1
at Toronto ALC Regionals
decks
3
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-9-1
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1307
· range 1210–1342
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1146
Q3 1310
1638
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +16.0 |
| Wind Allies | 13.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.4% | -6.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
