Fire Crux HybridTier 2
at Toronto ALC Regionals
decks
3
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-8-1
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1282
· median 1301
· range 1215–1329
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1146
Q3 1310
1638
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.5% | -6.7 |
| Wind Allies | 13.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.2% | -8.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.9% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
