Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at Toronto ALC Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.2% | +2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 13.7% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -3.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.1% | -5.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backstep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Meltdown | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| False Step | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |