Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Toronto ALC Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 13.7% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Oasis Trading Post | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uther, Illustrious King | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Caliburn of Silencing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coup de Grace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Patient Rogue | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thousand Refractions | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |