Water Crux MageTier 2
at Toronto ALC Regionals
decks
2
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
0-8-1
overall winrate
5.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
21.9%
avg ELO -13.0 per match
expected value
40.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1082
· median 1082
· range 994–1170
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1146
Q3 1310
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Allies | 13.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
