Toronto ALC Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Erupting	Tier 1	7	13.7%	23-14-4	61.0%	59.4%	53.2%	53.2%	1283	—
2		Wind Allies	Tier 1	7	13.7%	20-13-5	59.2%	58.9%	53.4%	53.8%	1228	—
3		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	5	9.8%	12-18-0	40.0%	43.4%	43.7%	44.7%	1180	↓ low
4		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 1	5	9.8%	14-11-2	55.6%	50.5%	52.4%	50.1%	1249	—
5		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	4	7.8%	14-13-1	51.8%	49.6%	49.6%	49.0%	1283	—
6		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	3	5.9%	8-9-1	47.2%	48.1%	51.8%	51.7%	1286	—
7		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 2	3	5.9%	9-8-1	52.8%	53.6%	48.6%	49.8%	1282	—
8		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	3	5.9%	6-3-5	60.7%	59.1%	51.8%	52.5%	1253	—
9		Water Allies	Tier 1	3	5.9%	13-4-1	75.0%	65.3%	58.0%	56.2%	1324	↑ top
10		Water Crux Mage	Tier 2	2	3.9%	0-8-1	5.6%	21.9%	40.6%	41.3%	1082	↓ low
11		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	2	3.9%	5-9-0	35.7%	40.0%	44.5%	45.4%	1190	—
12		Water Tera Silvie	Tier 2	2	3.9%	1-8-1	15.0%	27.0%	39.8%	40.7%	1113	↓ low
13		Dawn of Ashes	Tier 3	1	2.0%	2-4-0	33.3%	40.4%	44.0%	44.4%	1169	↓ low
14		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 3	1	2.0%	3-4-0	42.9%	49.2%	47.0%	48.9%	1262	—
15		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 2	1	2.0%	4-3-0	57.1%	53.1%	49.6%	49.4%	1299	↑ top
16		Water Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.0%	1-2-0	33.3%	43.3%	48.0%	48.3%	1063	↓ low
17		Water Tera Tamer	Tier 3	1	2.0%	1-4-0	20.0%	37.2%	42.0%	43.4%	1210	—
18		Water Umbra Diana	Tier 3	1	2.0%	1-4-0	20.0%	36.7%	41.2%	42.3%	1284	—
19		Water Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.0%	4-2-0	66.7%	59.0%	53.9%	53.6%	1229	—
20		Wind Tera Silvie	Tier 3	1	2.0%	2-2-2	50.0%	51.5%	47.9%	48.7%	1122	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Erupting 7 decks · 13.7%
• Wind Allies 7 decks · 13.7%
• Fire Arcane 5 decks · 9.8%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 5 decks · 9.8%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 4 decks · 7.8%
• Fire Aggro 3 decks · 5.9%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 3 decks · 5.9%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 3 decks · 5.9%
• Water Allies 3 decks · 5.9%
• Water Crux Mage 2 decks · 3.9%
• Water Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 3.9%
• Water Tera Silvie 2 decks · 3.9%
• Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 2.0%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 2.0%
• Fire Crux Merlin 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Astra Cleric 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Tera Tamer 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Umbra Diana 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.0%
• Wind Tera Silvie 1 deck · 2.0%