Water AlliesTier 1
at Toronto ALC Regionals
decks
3
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
13-4-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.3%
avg ELO +6.0 per match
expected value
58.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1324
· median 1323
· range 1229–1420
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1146
Q3 1310
1638
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Allies | 13.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +8.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.2 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
