EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at RWT Collective - MRC Store Champs. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Allies

57.1%

8.6% share · 16 matches

2.9% share · 7 matches

20.0% share · 33 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Vanitas	1	2.9%	7	78.6%	63.2%	61.7%	58.5%	1561	↑ top
2	Wind Allies	3	8.6%	16	59.4%	48.1%	57.1%	52.7%	1362	↑ top
3	Wind Shadowstrike	7	20.0%	33	69.7%	59.1%	56.9%	54.2%	1419	↑ top
4	Water Ravishing Mill	3	8.6%	20	62.5%	59.4%	54.1%	52.6%	1216	↓ low
5	Water Beast	1	2.9%	6	66.7%	62.7%	51.6%	53.0%	1470	↑ top
6	Water Crux Merlin	1	2.9%	5	60.0%	56.6%	49.0%	50.7%	1156	↓ low
7	Fire Erupting	2	5.7%	11	40.9%	46.7%	48.3%	49.5%	1469	↑ top
8	Water Luxem Assassin	1	2.9%	6	41.7%	51.2%	48.0%	50.3%	1192	↓ low
9	Slimes	8	22.9%	34	42.6%	47.3%	45.1%	47.2%	1205	↓ low
10	Wind Slice & Dice	1	2.9%	6	33.3%	43.8%	45.0%	47.5%	1125	↓ low
11	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.9%	6	33.3%	40.8%	44.4%	44.6%	1139	↓ low
12	Fire Arcane	1	2.9%	6	41.7%	46.2%	43.8%	44.4%	1283	—
13	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	2.9%	6	41.7%	46.7%	43.0%	44.8%	1264	—
14	Wind Slimes	1	2.9%	6	33.3%	41.6%	41.7%	42.2%	1180	↓ low
15	Fire Aggro	2	5.7%	11	18.2%	37.5%	40.1%	45.3%	1213	↓ low
16	Fire Astra Arisanna	1	2.9%	5	0.0%	25.8%	40.0%	43.1%	1106	↓ low