Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at MRC Massachusetts Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.3% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Allies | 11.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.5% | +10.0 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |