Water Crux MageTier 2
at MRC Massachusetts Regionals
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.1%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1115
· median 1115
· range 1115–1115
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1162
Q3 1329
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
