Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at MRC Massachusetts Regionals
decks
6
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
23-8-4
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.2%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
58.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1348
· median 1308
· range 1162–1656
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1162
Q3 1329
1656
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.5% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 65.5% | +8.3 |
| Wind Allies | 11.9% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 59.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 9.5% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -2.7 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.5% | +10.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.0 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
