SlimesTier 2
at MRC Massachusetts Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Wind Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereal Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vampiric Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Green Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Melodious Flute | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Nexus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |