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Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals

decks
10 (12.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
56 33-19-4
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.0% avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
57.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1379 · median 1432 · range 1087–1685 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
941 Q1 1161 Q3 1367 1685
60% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 16.7% 12 7-5-0 58.3% 56.2% 54.8% +2.0
Fire Crux Mage 12.8% 9 4-5-0 44.4% 46.2% 47.1% -1.3
Fire Umbra Ranger 11.5% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 50.2% +0.1
Wind Allies 11.5% 8 7-0-1 93.8% 79.2% 72.7% +10.9
Fire Aggro 3.8% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 56.4% +4.8
Fire Arcane 3.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.8% +1.3
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.8% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 70.5% +13.1
Fire Umbra Diana 2.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.1% +14.5
Water Neos 2.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.9% -3.0
Wind Lorraine 2.6% 0
Fire Arisanna 1.3% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 1.3% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 1.3% 0
Fire Erupting 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.6% -19.8
Fire Neos 1.3% 0
Fire Tera Tamer 1.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.7% +7.6
Water Astra Cleric 1.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.5
Water Crux Mage 1.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.2% -7.6
Water Dawn of Ashes 1.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.9% -3.0
Water Tera Silvie 1.3% 0
Wind Neos 1.3% 0
Wind Tera Silvie 1.3% 0
Wind Tonoris 1.3% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 39.8% -6.5
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.3% 0
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Serum of Wisdom. Losers more often ran: Orb of Choking Fumes, Oasis Trading Post.

Played more by winners
Serum of Wisdom
Winning decks ran 2.2 copies on average, losing decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.
Played more by losers
Orb of Choking Fumes
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.
Oasis Trading Post
Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Distilled Atrophy +0.33 2 0 0
Orb of Glitter +0.33 2 0 0
Peaceful Reunion -0.17 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.17 1 0 5
Exorcise Curses +0.17 1 0 5
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +0.17 1 0 5
Serum of Wisdom +0.17 2 1 3
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.17 0 1 0
Orb of Choking Fumes -0.17 1 2 1
Scry the Skies -0.17 0 1 5
Juggle Knives +0.17 1 0 5
Uther, Illustrious King -0.17 0 1 0
Azure Protective Trinket -0.17 0 1 0
Oasis Trading Post -0.17 1 2 0
Caliburn of Silencing -0.17 0 1 0
Focused Flames -0.17 0 1 0
Resolute Stand +0.00 1 1 4
Planted Explosive +0.00 1 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 2 2 1
Vanish from Sight +0.00 2 2 2
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.00 1 1 4
Tithe Proclamation +0.00 1 1 1
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief +0.00 1 1 3

JSON: /api/events/622/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin