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Fire Umbra RangerTier 2

at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals

decks

9 (11.5% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

52 23-27-2

overall winrate

46.2%

ELO-adjusted winrate

48.1% avg ELO -0.7 per match

expected value

47.0% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

49.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↓ low

mean ELO 1207 · median 1198 · range 941–1418 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)

941 Q1 1161 Q3 1367 1685

11% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Water Allies	16.7%	8	2-6-0	25.0%	33.3%	41.2%	-4.2
Fire Crux Mage	12.8%	10	6-4-0	60.0%	57.1%	54.5%	+2.0
Fire Luxem Assassin	12.8%	6	2-3-1	41.7%	45.0%	49.8%	-0.1
Wind Allies	11.5%	8	5-3-0	62.5%	58.3%	59.4%	+4.5
Fire Aggro	3.8%	4	0-4-0	0.0%	25.0%	26.5%	-15.0
Fire Arcane	3.8%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.9%	+15.8
Wind Crux Lorraine	3.8%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	47.0%	-2.2
Fire Umbra Diana	2.6%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	51.5%	+1.5
Water Neos	2.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Lorraine	2.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Arisanna	1.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Astra Cleric	1.3%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	49.5%	-0.8
Fire Crux Merlin	1.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	61.5%	+11.1
Fire Erupting	1.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Neos	1.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Tera Tamer	1.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.3%	+10.0
Water Astra Cleric	1.3%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.8%	-3.0
Water Crux Mage	1.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Dawn of Ashes	1.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Tera Silvie	1.3%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	38.8%	-17.9
Wind Neos	1.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.0%	+14.4
Wind Tera Silvie	1.3%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	40.8%	-14.7
Wind Tonoris	1.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Umbra Ranger	1.3%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	40.9%	-14.5

Decklists · 9 from this event

The 9 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Increasing Danger, Evasive Maneuvers, Airship Engineer. Losers more often ran: Meltdown, Carter, Synthetic Reaper.

↑ Played more by winners