Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Allies	Tier 1	13	16.7%	34-31-2	52.2%	51.5%	49.8%	49.4%	1282	—
2		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	10	12.8%	31-23-2	57.1%	55.1%	52.3%	51.6%	1350	↑ top
3		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	10	12.8%	33-19-4	62.5%	57.0%	57.7%	55.2%	1379	↑ top
4		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	9	11.5%	23-27-2	46.2%	48.1%	47.0%	49.3%	1207	↓ low
5		Wind Allies	Tier 2	9	11.5%	26-28-3	48.2%	50.2%	46.4%	47.7%	1221	—
6		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	3	3.8%	15-8-0	65.2%	61.6%	55.5%	54.8%	1227	—
7		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	3	3.8%	13-10-1	56.2%	49.2%	49.1%	47.3%	1412	↑ top
8		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	3	3.8%	12-7-0	63.2%	57.9%	50.8%	50.2%	1290	—
9		Fire Umbra Diana	Tier 2	2	2.6%	2-11-0	15.4%	25.1%	40.1%	40.7%	1063	↓ low
10		Water Neos	Tier 2	2	2.6%	5-6-1	45.8%	51.5%	46.6%	49.4%	1207	↓ low
11		Wind Lorraine	Tier 2	2	2.6%	3-7-1	31.8%	36.9%	44.0%	44.0%	1182	↓ low
12		Fire Arisanna	Tier 3	1	1.3%	0-4-0	0.0%	27.2%	40.0%	41.0%	1292	—
13		Fire Astra Cleric	Tier 3	1	1.3%	0-4-1	10.0%	32.3%	40.1%	42.5%	1073	↓ low
14		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 3	1	1.3%	2-3-0	40.0%	48.6%	39.2%	41.7%	1199	↓ low
15		Fire Erupting	Tier 2	1	1.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	54.7%	55.4%	56.7%	1320	—
16		Fire Neos	Tier 3	1	1.3%	0-8-0	0.0%	17.1%	37.7%	38.1%	1098	↓ low
17		Fire Tera Tamer	Tier 3	1	1.3%	3-3-1	50.0%	55.7%	44.3%	46.9%	1301	—
18		Water Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	1.3%	3-4-0	42.9%	53.9%	48.3%	51.1%	1354	↑ top
19		Water Crux Mage	Tier 3	1	1.3%	0-3-1	12.5%	33.7%	41.6%	44.0%	1522	↑ top
20		Water Dawn of Ashes	Tier 2	1	1.3%	4-3-0	57.1%	60.1%	51.0%	53.0%	1161	↓ low
21		Water Tera Silvie	Tier 2	1	1.3%	3-4-0	42.9%	51.6%	51.6%	53.4%	1073	↓ low
22		Wind Neos	Tier 3	1	1.3%	2-5-0	28.6%	38.1%	41.5%	42.4%	1110	↓ low
23		Wind Tera Silvie	Tier 3	1	1.3%	3-4-0	42.9%	45.7%	46.6%	47.1%	1161	↓ low
24		Wind Tonoris	Tier 2	1	1.3%	6-2-1	72.2%	59.6%	57.7%	54.7%	1624	↑ top
25		Wind Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	1.3%	4-3-0	57.1%	54.4%	52.8%	53.0%	1145	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Allies 13 decks · 16.7%
• Fire Crux Mage 10 decks · 12.8%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 10 decks · 12.8%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 9 decks · 11.5%
• Wind Allies 9 decks · 11.5%
• Fire Aggro 3 decks · 3.8%
• Fire Arcane 3 decks · 3.8%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 3 decks · 3.8%
• Fire Umbra Diana 2 decks · 2.6%
• Water Neos 2 decks · 2.6%
• Wind Lorraine 2 decks · 2.6%
• Fire Arisanna 1 deck · 1.3%
• Fire Astra Cleric 1 deck · 1.3%
• Fire Crux Merlin 1 deck · 1.3%
• Fire Erupting 1 deck · 1.3%
• Fire Neos 1 deck · 1.3%
• Fire Tera Tamer 1 deck · 1.3%
• Water Astra Cleric 1 deck · 1.3%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.3%
• Water Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 1.3%
• Water Tera Silvie 1 deck · 1.3%
• Wind Neos 1 deck · 1.3%
• Wind Tera Silvie 1 deck · 1.3%
• Wind Tonoris 1 deck · 1.3%
• Wind Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 1.3%